Phil Steele Preseason Power Ratings Place Arkansas State Sixth in Sun Belt
Arkansas State enters the 2026 football season rated among the top half of the Sun Belt Conference in Phil Steele’s plus/minus preseason power ratings.
The Red Wolves received a rating of 97.36, placing them sixth among the conference’s 14 teams. The figure is a comparative preseason power number rather than a projected win total or betting line.
James Madison holds the conference’s highest rating at 108.01. Troy follows at 101.67, with Old Dominion third at 100.75.
Georgia Southern is fourth at 97.81, followed by Marshall at 97.62 and Arkansas State at 97.36.
Only 0.45 points separate Georgia Southern from Arkansas State, placing the Red Wolves in a tightly grouped second tier behind James Madison, Troy and Old Dominion.
Arkansas State is rated ahead of Louisiana Tech at 95.92 and Louisiana at 95.75. The Red Wolves hold a 1.44-point advantage over Louisiana Tech and a 1.61-point edge over Louisiana.
Those narrow margins suggest little preseason separation among several teams expected to compete behind the conference’s top-rated programs.
Appalachian State is ninth at 91.89, followed by Coastal Carolina at 90.90 and South Alabama at 90.14.
ULM, Southern Mississippi and Georgia State occupy the bottom three positions. ULM received an 85.37 rating, Southern Mississippi was rated at 85.32 and Georgia State came in at 85.04.
Steele’s complete Sun Belt plus/minus preseason power ratings are:
James Madison — 108.01
Troy — 101.67
Old Dominion — 100.75
Georgia Southern — 97.81
Marshall — 97.62
Arkansas State — 97.36
Louisiana Tech — 95.92
Louisiana — 95.75
Appalachian State — 91.89
Coastal Carolina — 90.90
South Alabama — 90.14
ULM — 85.37
Southern Mississippi — 85.32
Georgia State — 85.04
Arkansas State’s placement shows that Steele views the Red Wolves as a potential conference contender, but not as one of the clear preseason favorites.
The Red Wolves are 10.65 points behind James Madison, 4.31 behind Troy and 3.39 behind Old Dominion. The gap becomes much smaller beginning with Georgia Southern, Marshall and Arkansas State.
Only 2.06 points separate Georgia Southern in fourth place from Louisiana in eighth. That cluster includes five programs that could be difficult to separate once conference play begins.
For Arkansas State, the rating reflects both opportunity and uncertainty.
The Red Wolves begin the preseason close enough to the conference’s upper group to contend, but they do not hold a substantial numerical advantage over Louisiana Tech or Louisiana.
Quarterback play, defensive improvement, turnovers and performance in close games could determine whether Arkansas State rises above its preseason position or falls into the middle of the conference.